Flood Forecast

Please note: The following flood forecast is experimental and still in the process of being tweaked and refined.


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⚠ Warning: This product is experimental and should not be used for planning purposes. ⚠

Wave runup predictions at this site are made with historical LiDAR- and GPS-derived foreshore beach slope extending from MSL to MHW at MOP transect D0582 (Torrey Pines Parking Lot South). Nearshore forecasted wave conditions are modeled in 10m water depth at the offshore end of this transect. Forecasted waves include mean setup and time-variable swash motions, predicted by the Integrated Power law Approximation (IPA) described in this paper. The equation is tuned for Torrey Pines, with optimal parameter values:


The flood threshold (red line) is taken to be the vertical measurement (MLLW datum) of the parking lot entrance (road). Observed waves for this plot are derived with the ‘nowcast’ MOP wave products.